Starting with those who said that the abrupt and steep rise in tariffs would create a recession, these views hit a peak when President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs in early April on more than 90 countries, with tariff rates ranging from 10 to 50%. Recession calls have since stabilized at a lower level but remain elevated. So, part of the relief within media commentary is that the worst case hasn’t played out. But that doesn’t mean the U.S. economy is strong or ignoring the twist and turns in domestic policy. Major bank forecasters do not have a strong forecast this year or next, even within a wide distribution ... (full story)