The global economy is facing its steepest downturn in years, with Fitch Ratings slashing its GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 to just 2.2%, down from 2.9% in 2024. This figure is notably lower than the historical average of 2.7%, reflecting the lingering impact of the most severe global trade war since the 1930s, according to the agency. The primary driver of this shift is a surge in U.S. tariffs, particularly against China and the European Union, with effective tariff rates (ETRs) now reaching 15–20%, a sharp rise from just 2.5% in 2024. Such a sudden increase is historically rare and difficult to model, but ... (full story)