Nearly two months ago, we penned a report discussing the possibility of (our term) "complation," or too much complacency regarding inflation. At the time with May inflation data in hand, there wasn't much of a discernible impact from tariffs; the same cannot necessarily be said now. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has seen its year-over-year (y/y) rate move higher, as has the core CPI, which excludes food and energy. As shown in the chart below, y/y growth rates have started to creep back up—to 2.7% and 3.1%, respectively. Some of the summer heat in CPI can be seen when looking at the month-over-month (m/m) changes, ... (full story)