US Secretary Bessent said the Fed should cut by 50bp in September, and that rates are 150-175bp above where they should be. Markets aren’t considering a 50bp move as an option, and we doubt they will unless there are hints in that direction from Fed members or if the jobs data falls much further. Today, Norges Bank should hold rates, with some minor hawkish risk Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on the Fed yesterday added fuel to dovish Fed bets. The USD two-year swap rate fell another 6bp yesterday to just under 3.40%, around 10bp below pre-US CPI. Bessent said the Fed’s rate should be 150-175bp lower, and ... (full story)