Bailey: More uncertainty now about when steps are taken

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short and longer-term horizons and were unchanged at the medium-term horizon. Consumers expect smaller growth in their tax payments and are more optimistic about their household financial situations. Expectations about the labor market were mixed with consumers reporting greater likelihoods of losing and finding jobs, and a lower likelihood of a rise in overall unemployment. The survey was fielded from July 1 through July 31, 2025. Median inflation expectations in July increased at the one-year-ahead horizon to 3.1% from 3.0% and at the five-year-ahead horizon to 2.9% from 2.6%. They remained steady at the three-year-ahead horizon at 3.0%. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at the one-year horizon, was unchanged at the three-year horizon, and increased at the five-year horizon. NY Fed inflation expectations: 1 year: 3.1%, vs 3.0% last 3 years: 3.0%, vs 3.0% last 5 years: 2.9%, vs 2.6% last

Fed's Bostic: I still feel that one cut for this year remains appropriate, but there is a lot of data coming before the September meeting. Bostic Says Jobs Data Show Higher Risks to Labor Market Than Before Last Meeting Fed's Bostic: I am hopeful that by mid to late next year, price pressures will have eased. Fed’s Bostic: Hopeful Can Start Returning To Neutral Rate In 2026 Fed's Bostic: It would not be surprising if dissents continue at the FOMC meetings, given the complexity of the moment.