Markets are all in on predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the next policy meeting on Sep. 17. But there could be a wild card in the deck. A key macro question between now and then: Will the next two updates on consumer inflation persuade the Fed to leave rates unchanged – or perhaps raise rates? At the moment, markets are confident that the central bank will ease policy next month. Let’s start with the US 2-year yield, which is widely viewed as a proxy for rate expectations. The current yield – 3.72% as of Aug. 5 — continues to trade well below the median Fed funds rate (4.33%), a sign that ... (full story)