The ISM index fell to 50.1, a reading that is consistent with the slowest possible pace of expansion. It is the third-lowest reading since the pandemic year of 2020. While the service-sector is still expanding, that expansion looks like it is girding to a halt (chart). A theme over the past week or so has been a deterioration in the economic data as the lagged effects of trade uncertainty emerge at last. The fact that the ISM services index has only had one monthly reading in contraction territory this year would appear to signal the service sector has been more resilient to the impact of tariffs. We have actually ... (full story)