Tariffs and trade tensions continue to weigh on the outlooks of many firms. In some cases, the negative effects on costs and sales that most businesses predicted last quarter have materialized, and firms expect them to persist. At the same time, firms have moderated their expectations for negative impacts, as the worst-case trade scenarios they anticipated last quarter now appear less likely (Chart 1). For example, around two-thirds of firms expected higher tariff-related costs last quarter compared with only one-third this quarter. Last quarter, firms described the economic environment as highly unpredictable, which ... (full story)

The CSCE indicator summarizes the opinions of Canadian consumers about their spending plans, the labour market and their personal finances (Box 1).1 This measure fell for the second consecutive quarter as the impact of tariffs and related uncertainty continued (Chart 1).2 Since the start of 2025, the decline in the indicator has been driven mainly by weaker spending intentions (Chart 1, green bars) and growing pessimism among Canadians about their financial health (Chart 1, yellow bars). This is particularly true for respondents in regions heavily dependent on trade with the United States. The labour market index ... (full story)