Russian precious metals sales to China hit $1bn

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3% in June 2025 to 98.8 (2016=100), after no change in May (revised upward from –0.1% originally ...

Tariffs and trade tensions continue to weigh on the outlooks of many firms. In some cases, the negative effects on costs and sales that most businesses predicted last quarter have materialized, and firms expect them to persist. At the same time, firms have moderated their expectations for negative impacts, as the worst-case trade scenarios they anticipated last quarter now appear less likely (Chart 1). For example, around two-thirds of firms expected higher tariff-related costs last quarter compared with only one-third this quarter. Last quarter, firms described the economic environment as highly unpredictable, which made it difficult for them to form a clear outlook for the year ahead. This quarter, more firms can now form an outlook with greater confidence, although they still report that it is hard or somewhat hard to do so. Fewer businesses are considering extremely negative scenarios in their planning. Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2025 The CSCE indicator summarizes the opinions of Canadian consumers about their spending plans, the labour market and their personal finances (Box 1).1 This measure fell for the second consecutive quarter as the impact of tariffs and related uncertainty continued (Chart 1).2 Since the start of 2025, the decline in the indicator has been driven mainly by weaker spending intentions (Chart 1, green bars) and growing pessimism among Canadians about their financial health (Chart 1, yellow bars). This is particularly true for respondents in regions heavily dependent on trade with the United States. The labour market index remained nearly unchanged after falling sharply in the first quarter of 2025 (Chart 2). Consumers, especially young people, continued to report a higher-than-average chance of losing their job. This elevated concern is largely because of the trade conflict with the United States. In follow-up interviews, an employee of a manufacturing company said, “Tariffs are impacting my job a little bit. They are affecting my industry a lot, and many companies are laying off their employees.” Bank of Canada Q2 Business Sentiment Index Falls to -2.42 from -2.12 in Q1, revised from -2.14 . BOC Survey Says Tariffs and Uncertainty Still Significantly Affect Business Expectations Canada: BOC Survey Shows 64.5% of Canadians Expect Recession Next Year, Down from 66.5% in Q1