Thank you, John, and thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. My purpose this evening is to explain why I believe that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should reduce our policy rate by 25 basis points at our next meeting. I used to tell my junior research colleagues that presentations are not murder mysteries—just tell the audience up front "who did it" by telling them the main point. So let me follow my own advice and state up front the reasons I believe we should cut the policy rate at our meeting in two weeks. First, tariffs are one-off increases in the price level and do not cause inflation ... (full story)