We should really put to one side all of the speculation on Fed Chair Powell getting the sack. If he goes it's more likely that he chooses to leave, and even that is unlikely. But if he did, see here what we think would happen. Wednesday saw a preview of how it might go down. It was as follows: 1. Short-end Treasury yields fall, 2. The dollar falls, 3. Equity markets fall, 4. Credit spreads widen, and 5. Long-end Treasury yields rise. That's pretty much how we'd see it, but with one alternative. We think that the impact would indeed be risk-off, but we suspect that equities might just be tempted to subsequently rally ... (full story)