Core CPI inflation edged up a bit last month to 2.77% m/m at a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (chart 1). The past three months have been 2.9%, 1.6% and 2.8% for a three-month moving average of 2.4%. The FOMC is likely to say that’s hardly screaming out for rate cuts regardless of what the administration says. Furthermore, core inflation would have been higher yet if not for a cooked SA factor, while further evidence points to impaired data reliability due to BLS funding cuts. {chart} This is also how markets generally reacted to the data. The US 2-year yield moved up by about 3–4bps post-data. Markets ... (full story)