The second half of 2025 begins not with optimism, but with fatigue. The global economy is not collapsing, but it is clearly bending under strain—economic, geopolitical, and institutional. What is taking shape is not a soft landing, but something more sobering: a slower, structurally weaker cycle in a more dangerous and fragile world. Three developments define this uneasy moment. First, is the looming end of postponement of the US so-called reciprocal tariffs. Second is China’s demonstration that it dominates the supply chain for rare earths and magnets with the same iron grip the US maintains over semiconductors. ... (full story)