The 16.4% pop in durable goods orders in May is the biggest headline increase since 2014 when a bumper crop of aircraft orders boosted the headline number in a dramatic way. It is a similar story today with a 230.8% pop in civilian aircraft orders. Rudyard Kipling famously suggested we meet with Triumph and Disaster and treat those two impostors just the same. The 26.4% increase in durable goods orders in July 2014 was followed by 21.2% drop the following month and back-to-back declines in every remaining month of that year. No one is saying that is what to expect in the remaining months of this year, but payback ... (full story)