As the first half of the year closes, financial markets are in limbo, waiting to see how the kaleidoscope of global trade deals will – or won’t – come together after July 9, when Washington’s pause on its “reciprocal tariffs” expires. But if investors are wrong-footed, which trades will be the most vulnerable? The state of suspended animation in today’s markets is remarkably bullish. U.S. growth forecasts are rising, S&P 500 earnings growth estimates for next year are running at a punchy 14%, corporate deal-making is picking up, and world stocks are at record highs. The uncertainty immediately following President ... (full story)