Daly: The fall looks promising for a rate cut; the fall may bring favorable conditions for a rate cut

Thank you for that kind introduction. I thought today I could share my perspective on where the economy stands and where it may be headed. Before I jump in, let me share two notes of caution. First, nearly three months ago, I spoke on the state of the economy at the Economic Club of D.C. When I walked off the stage, someone showed me her phone. The stock market was surging. My first thought was, “Oh no, what’d I say?” Happily, it wasn’t me. While I’d been speaking, the reciprocal tariffs had been delayed. So, suffice it to say, what I share today only reflects what I know as of 8 a.m. this morning. Second, as always, the views I share today are mine alone and not necessarily those of anyone else on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or in the Federal Reserve System. Fed's Barkin: Expects tariff policy to continue to change. Fed’s Barkin: Fed Policy Is Well Positioned For Where Economy Might Go - Amid Uncertainty, Fed Has Time To Take In Data - Inflation Will Be Pressured Higher By Tariffs - Doesn’t Expect Replay Of Pandemic Era Inflation Fed’s Barkin: Fed Faces Risks On Both Job, Inflation Mandates - Expects Tariff Policy To Continue To Change - Outlook For The Economy Remains Cloudy Fed’s Barkin: Recent Economic Data Has Been Solid - Recent Inflation Data Encouraging, Job Market Is Healthy - Businesses Still In Pause Mode Amid Uncertainty

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China decreased by 0.3% in May 2025 to 148.9 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.5% in April. As a result, the LEI declined by ...

Good morning and thank you all for joining us at the seventeenth Policy Summit. I’m honored to welcome you to our marquee community development event—my first as president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.1 If this is your first visit to our fair city, let me assure you Cleveland does indeed rock. I highly recommend exploring some of what this vibrant city has to offer in one of our loveliest weather months. The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame is just down the street, as is Progressive Field, where I happen to know the Guardians are playing home games over the next couple of days. But while we are participating in the summit, I’d like to acknowledge we wouldn’t all be together in person, or virtually, if it wasn’t for the efforts of the Cleveland Fed’s community development staff and our Reserve Bank and community partners. The Federal Reserve System’s Community Development Departments aim to promote economic growth and financial stability. We are honored to welcome representatives from each of the reserve banks to this summit, and I’m especially grateful to the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and St. Louis for supporting the planning and execution of the event. Your dedication and collaboration made this ambitious program a reality. I’d like to recognize and thank Federal Reserve Governors Michael Barr and Lisa Cook for joining us. Governor Barr is the Community Development Oversight Governor for the Board of Governors and will share some remarks about the System’s community development efforts this afternoon. And Governor Cook will join me tomorrow for our 2025 Fed Listens session. We hope all of you will take part in that productive conversation about how monetary policy affects your lives and the lives of the people you know and serve. And before I continue, I note that the v Fed's Hammack does not comment on economy, monetary policy outlook.