Thank you for that kind introduction. I thought today I could share my perspective on where the economy stands and where it may be headed. Before I jump in, let me share two notes of caution. First, nearly three months ago, I spoke on the state of the economy at the Economic Club of D.C. When I walked off the stage, someone showed me her phone. The stock market was surging. My first thought was, “Oh no, what’d I say?” Happily, it wasn’t me. While I’d been speaking, the reciprocal tariffs had been delayed. So, suffice it to say, what I share today only reflects what I know as of 8 a.m. this morning. Second, as always, ... (full story)