The tariff saga is front and center in the public’s future inflation perceptions, but should it hold such importance? When Donald Trump was elected in November, respondents to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey anticipated 2.6% consumer price inflation over the proximate year, roughly in line with that month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate of 2.7%. Expectations have leapt higher. Last month’s Michigan survey had a new estimate: 6.6%, akin to responses last seen in 1978, when inflation was ripping through Jimmy Carter’s presidency. It’s a bold estimate when considering the 2.4% CPI rate ... (full story)