We’ve had a very comforting set of US inflation numbers for May with both headline and core CPI rising 0.1% month-on-month versus market expectations of 0.2% for headline and 0.3% for core. It is also softer than the 0.2% MoM outcome for the core measure we had been looking for on the rationale of some softness in services and that tariff impacts are more likely to be felt in July - around three months after the imposition of tariffs. This was the approximate timeline that we saw when washing machines were hit by a 20% tariff in 2018 as inventory already in the country is not subject to the tax. The chart above shows ... (full story)