I spent this whole week getting lathered up over a weak nonfarm payrolls release as Conference Board and Initial Claims data point to weak jobs growth… {chart} … But the nonfarm payrolls release itself came in on the screws and I, like others, gave back all my profits in bonds. {chart} So, while the US jobs market shows cracks, it hasn’t cracked. And we wait. The dates on the calendar now are: • China/US trade talks 13JUN • Big Beautiful Bill target date for House 04JUL • End of tariff pause 09JUL The China / US story has devolved into something similar to 2017 where both sides say stuff and nothing really happens ... (full story)