Chair Powell says it at almost every post-FOMC press conference: inflation expectations are well-anchored. But, is that still true? The answer is key to understanding the evolution of future inflation, the timing of the Fed’s next rate cut, and how rapidly interest rates may fall from here. At the last FOMC press conference, the Chairman hedged his bet for the first time. He noted that “near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up as reflected in both market and survey-based measures”. But, he also said, “beyond the next year or so, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 ... (full story)