The FOMC left the fed funds policy rate unchanged at 4.5% as universally expected. The Committee also left its balance sheet plans unchanged. Guidance on the path forward was very similar to the tone at Chair Powell’s April 16th event in Chicago and to his March 19th press conference but with increased uncertainty this time. The bottom line is that the Committee doesn’t know what to do and when, as data and developments will inform potentially conflicting changes in unemployment and inflation that could merit very different policy responses. The guidance continues to be that if inflation strays further from 2% than ... (full story)