We think the Bank of England will cut the policy rate by 25bp, and so do markets, with a full cut already priced in. Markets see the chance for a consecutive cut in June at around 50%, but here we disagree. Instead, our economists still sees the BoE sticking to a gradual easing of one cut per quarter. The sharper pricing of markets is mainly a spillover from the global unrest since Trump’s tariff’s announcements. We therefore wouldn’t push against this for now – trade negotiations are still underway and the consequences have not yet had a chance to materialise in the data. While short end EUR rates have disentangled ... (full story)