The Federal Reserve is risking tipping the economy into contraction by not cutting interest rates now, according to the author of a time-tested rule for when recessions happen. Economist Claudia Sahm has shown that when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is half a percentage point higher than its 12-month low, the economy is in recession. As the jobless level has ticked up in recent months, the “Sahm Rule” has generated increasing talk on Wall Street that what has been a strong labor market is showing cracks and pointing to potential trouble ahead. That in turn has generated speculation over when the Fed ... (full story)