Gold outlook remains positive despite drop ahead of FOMC minutes

post: FOMC Minutes: Fed Officials Note 'Disappointing' Inflation Readings in First Quarter FOMC Minutes: Officials Discuss Holding Rates Steady For Longer if Inflation Doesn't Fall FOMC Minutes: Officials Still Think Monetary Policy Is Restrictive, But Uncertain About DegreeMinutes of the Federal Open Market Committee April 30–May 1, 2024 Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets. Domestic data releases over the intermeeting period pointed to inflation being more persistent than previously expected and to a generally resilient economy. Policy expectations shifted materially in response. The policy rate path derived from futures prices implied fewer than two 25 basis point rate cuts by yearend. The modal path based on options prices was quite flat, suggesting at most one such rate cut in 2024. The median of the modal paths of the federal funds rate obtained from the Open Market Desk’s Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants also indicated fewer cuts this year than previously thought. Respondents’ baseline expectations for the timing of the first rate cut—which had been concentrated around June in the March surveys—shifted out significantly and became more diffuse. Treasury yields rose materially over the intermeeting period. At shorter maturities, the increase appeared to largely reflect higher inflation compensation, while at longer maturities, it was attributable mostly to a higher expected path for the real policy rate and higher real risk premiums. Model estimates suggested that inflation expectations rose some, but mostly at post: FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS AT THE MEETING ASSESSED IT WOULD TAKE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED TO GAIN GREATER CONFIDENCE IN INFLATION MOVING SUSTAINABLY TO 2%. post: FED MINUTES: VARIOUS PARTICIPANTS MENTIONED WILLINGNESS TO TIGHTEN POLICY FURTHER SHOULD RISKS TO OUTLOOK MATERIALIZE AND MAKE SUCH ACTION APPROPRIATE. post: Fed Staff’s Economic Projection Was Similar to March Outlook, but Noted That Deteriorating Household Financial Positions, Especially for Lower-Income Households, Might Prove to Be Bigger Drag on Activity Than Anticipated