-
Post-CPI, the BoC Has a Stronger Case for a July Cut
Make that four soft readings in a row! The key question is whether that’s enough to prompt the BoC to cut as soon as two weeks from now on June 5th or whether patience while seeking more data and other arguments to holding off will dominate. There remains a stronger case to cut in Q3/July than June in my opinion and for treading very carefully afterward. Key is that the BoC’s preferred core inflation readings put in another soft month (chart 1). Weighted median CPI was up 1.72% m/m at a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) while trimmed mean CPI was up by 1.75% m/m SAAR. The three-month moving averages ... (full story)