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COT: Commodities correction spurs muted selling response
Weeks of dollar strength that recently lifted the non-commercial dollar long position against eight IMM futures to near a five-year high showed signs of running out of momentum during the reporting period to 30 April. Despite gaining 0.5% on the week, traders opted – wisely as it turned out – to reduce their dollar long exposure, overall resulting in a 10% reduction to USD 29.4 billion, primarily driven by broad short covering, led by CAD, JPY and AUD. table In the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, covering the week ending 30 April, several notable trends emerged amidst market fluctuations. This week ... (full story)
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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released results from its 2024 SCE Housing Survey, which is part of the broader Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and provides information on consumers’ housing-related experiences and expectations. The results show that the pace at which households expect home prices to rise in the next year has reaccelerated after falling last year, with average one-year ahead expectations now reaching their second highest reading in the survey’s history. In contrast, home price growth expectations for the next five years declined slightly. Expectations about the change in the cost of rent were considerably higher than home price expectations but followed a similar pattern, as rental price growth expectations increased for one-year-ahead and were essentially flat for five-years ahead. Homeowners’ expectations about the likelihood of refinancing their mortgages over the next 12 months rebounded slightly after falling last year, but remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Renters’ views on the ease of obtaining a mortgage deteriorated substantially, with 74.2% stating that obtaining a mortgage is somewhat or very difficult. In fact, renters’ self-assessed probability of ever owning a home decreased to a new series low. The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post that estimates the extent to which mortgage rate lock-in is suppressing U.S. household’s post: New York Fed: February Year-Ahead Home Price Rise at 5.1% vs 2.6% in Feb. of 2023 NY Fed: Feb. Five-Year-Ahead Expected Home Price Rise 2.7% vs. Feb. 2023’s 2.8% NY Fed: Feb. Year-Ahead Expected Rent Rise at 9.7% vs. Feb. 2023’s 8.2%Renters’ hopes of being able to buy a home have fallen to a record low, New York Fed survey shows The dream of home ownership has gotten even further away for renters, with higher housing costs and elevated interest rates standing in the way of the American housing dream, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday. The share of renters as of February who possess hopes of “residential mobility,” or the belief from renters that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4% in the central bank’s annual housing survey for 2024. That’s down from 15% in 2023 and well off the 20.8% series high back in 2014. Pessimism about future prospects comes amid a confluence of factors conspiring against the likelihood of renters being able to transition to home ownership. For one, some 74.2% of renters viewed obtaining a mortgage as somewhat or very difficult, which the New York Fed said has “deteriorated substantially” from the 66.5% level in 2023 and 63.1% in 2022. Moreover, mortgage rates have remained high by historical standards. A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now carries an average 7.22% borrowing rate, the highest since late-November 2023, according to Freddie Mac. Housing affordability has improved little, with the median price in February at $388,700, the highest since November, according to the National Association of Realtors. The NAR’s housing affordability index was at 103 in February, down slightly from January
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- Posted: May 6, 2024 11:00am
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 207