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Why might this time be different?
Why My Recession Rule Could Go Wrong This Time. But again, a recession is not inevitable. Indicators of economic downturns like the Sahm rule are empirical regularities from the past, not laws of nature. The pandemic was extremely disruptive, and the rebalancing of the economy has been messy and slow. That’s as true for inflation and supply chains as it is for the labor market. After more than two years of severe labor shortages, workers are still coming back at a somewhat faster pace than new jobs being created. The labor force participation of prime-age women is at an all-time high after an outsized decline in ... (full story)