Globally, core inflation remains elevated and central banks are expected to keep monetary policy tight for some time. While the global economy’s adjustment to higher interest rates has been relatively benign so far, the full impact is still to be seen and there are several tail risk scenarios. Key global risks in the near term include the possibility that central banks need to tighten monetary policy further, unanticipated impacts from previous tightening, potential spillovers from the current slowdown in the Chinese property market and escalation of the war in the Middle East. • New Zealand households and businesses ... (full story)