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U.S. Economy Beats, Core PCE Misses — Which One To Emphasize?
A lot of information hit markets all at about the same time this morning (ECB, US indicators, etc) and this makes it difficult to draw overly strong conclusions about what markets reacted to. Nevertheless, it seems probable that US Treasury yields fell after 8:30amET US data because markets placed greater emphasis upon a small miss by core PCE inflation and ignored a beat by Q3 GDP alongside impressive details. I’m skeptical toward whether this was the correct reading from a Fed narrative standpoint. First the data. Q3 GDP grew by 4.9% q/q SAAR and hence slightly in excess of consensus and well above the bottom end ... (full story)