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Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD struggling to find momentum above $1,870 after FOMC minutes non-starter
Gold spot prices find themselves on the high side for Wednesday, up from the day's opening bids around $1,859 with the day's high etched in near $1,877. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest meeting minutes failed to spark a notable market reaction, with Fed officials spreading their bets on comments about inflation risks and policy measures. XAU/USD is struggling to find momentum to make a meaningful run into $1,880, and intraday action could see itself constrained into the back end as markets head into Thursday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading. The US CPI printing on Thursday is expected to see a mild decline ... (full story)
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The gold market is seeing solid gains after bouncing off last week"s seven-month low. While there are still some risks in the marketplace, the analysts at the World Gold Council ...
The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets over the intermeeting period. U.S. data releases generally pointed to greater economic resilience than previously thought, and the reaction in market pricing implied both a higher expected trajectory for the policy rate at longer horizons and higher term premiums. Policy-sensitive rates rose moderately, and longer-dated forward rates displayed larger increases. Ten-year Treasury yields ended the period more than 40 basis points higher, and broad measures of equity prices fell. Bank equity prices underperformed over the period, but taking a somewhat longer view, investor sentiment toward the banking sector appeared to have largely stabilized, with less differentiation of equity price movements across bank types. The dollar broadly appreciated against advanced-economy currencies over the period, as stronger U.S. data supported moderately increased yield differentials against these economies amid perceptions that policy rates were at or near their peaks. In China, signs of strain in the property sector increased, and optimism about growth diminished further, on net, although broader markets, including global commodity markets, did not appear to show elevated concern about China-related risks. U.S. financial conditions tightened, with higher longer-term rates, lower equity prices, and a stronger dollar contributing roughly equally to the increase in various financial conditions indexes. In addressing the increase in nominal yields on longer-run Treasury securities over the intermeeting period, the manager noted that the rise in real yields exceeded that of nominal yields over the period, implying a small decline in inflation compensation. Inflation expectations appeared to remain very well anchored. Market participants cited various factors for the rise in longer-term nominal yields, including stronger-than-expected economic data, a possible increase in the neutral policy rate, greater economic and policy uncertainty, and larger-than-expected borrowing by the Treasury. Household and corporate borrowing rates increased over the period, generally rising in line with Treasury yields. Still, market participants noted that, with household and corporate borrowers having a limited need to refinance debt in the near term, it could take more time for past monetary policy actions to fully pass through to these sectors. Regarding expectations for the September FOMC meeting, the manager noted that responses to the Open Market Desk's Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants and mark post: *FED: 'ALL' AGREED RATES SHOULD STAY RESTRICTIVE FOR SOME TIME *FED OFFICIALS GENERALLY SAW RISKS TO GOALS AS MORE TWO-SIDED *FOMC MINUTES SHOW ALL AGREED FED CAN 'PROCEED CAREFULLY' *FED: MOST CONTINUED TO SEE UPSIDE INFLATION RISKS post: FED MINUTES: THE VAST MAJORITY OF PARTICIPANTS CONTINUE TO JUDGE FUTURE PATH OF THE ECONOMY AS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. post: FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS SAID INFLATION WAS UNACCEPTABLY HIGH, MORE EVIDENCE NEEDED TO BE CONFIDENT PRICE PRESSURES EBBING. post: Fed Minutes: Several participants commented that with policy rate at or near peak, decisions and communications should shift to how long rates stay restrictive versus how high they will rise.
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- Posted: Oct 11, 2023 2:59pm
- Submitted by:Category: Technical AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 328
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