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September Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period
After having raised the fed funds target range by 75 bps at four consecutive meetings beginning in June of last year, the FOMC has gradually slowed the pace of subsequent policy tightening. The FOMC hiked rates by 50 bps in December 2022, then slowed the pace of tightening to 25 bps at each of its first three meetings of this year. A "skip" in June followed by another 25 bps hike at its most recent meeting on July 26 suggests that the pace of tightening has slowed even further, consistent with the policy rate nearing—if not already having arrived at—its ultimate destination for this cycle. We expect the FOMC will ... (full story)