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Uncertainty over China’s stimulus weighs on sentiment
European equity markets have started the new week on the back foot following a negative lead from Asia. Investors are seemingly disappointed by the lack of new news on China’s stimulus, US equities and bond markets are closed for a holiday with futures contracts pointing to small dips for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 while UST futures suggest 10y US Treasury yields are biased to open 5bps higher. The latter on the back of a move higher in UK and EU rates with the market lifting expectations on both BoE and ECB terminal rates. The USD has regained a bit of ground amid subdued sentiment and a weaker CNY, AUD starts the ... (full story)
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post at 9:18pm: #BREAKING: #PBOC cut benchmark lending rate LPR by 10 bp One-year LPR cut to 3.55% from 3.65% Five-year LPR cut to 4.2% from 4.3%China cuts two more key lending rates as economy sputters The People’s Bank of China cut another key policy rate on Tuesday for the first time in 10 months, as the world’s second largest economy shows signs of stalling. The latest rate cut come on the heels of two previous easing moves last week, as authorities seek to prop up growth. The Chinese central bank cut the one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and trimmed the five-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points from 4.3% to 4.2% — for the first time since August. chart Tuesday’s move was widely expected after a slew of economic data in the last few weeks — from industrial production and fixed asset investment to retail sales and trade in May — fell short of expectations. China appears to be teetering on the brink of deflation as reopening optimism fizzles. Top investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, recently cut their full-year GDP estimates for China, and warned of headwinds ahead. Last Thursday, the PBOC cut its one-year medium-term loan facility for the first time in 10 months, and lowered its seven-day reverse repurchase rate on Monday last week.
Members commenced their discussion of the global economy by noting that inflation in many economies remained well above central banks’ targets. Although headline inflation had continued to decline as energy prices fell and food price inflation eased, members noted that core inflation had remained sticky and shown little sign of easing. Services inflation, which had become the primary source of inflationary pressures across advanced economies, had continued at a high rate. This partly reflected strong wages growth, which remained above rates consistent with inflation targets in many economies. This, in combination with subdued growth in labour productivity, had resulted in a rapid rise in unit labour costs over the preceding year. Members acknowledged the implications of this for Australia, given the high degree of commonality in inflation experience globally since the pandemic. While central banks in advanced economies expected inflation to return to target, most do not see this as likely to occur in the coming year. Members noted that economic growth in advanced economies was slowing gradually as contractionary monetary policy settings took effect. GDP in major advanced economies had risen only slightly in the March quarter and had declined in some euro area countries. Consumption growth had been subdued in the March quarter and indications were that this had continued into the June quarter. Business investment was yet to surpass pre-pandemic levels in most advanced economies. Other indicators of economic activity had been more resilient in recent months. Housing prices appeared to have stabilised in several countries, following significant declines over 2022, and survey measures of business conditions pointed to services sector activity having increased further in May. In China, the growth momentum had waned in April after a strong bounce-back following the end of pandemic restrictions and the reo post at 9:40pm: RBA: Arguments Between Rate Hike, Rate Pause `Finely Balanced’ $AUDUSD #CPI #Inflation https://t.co/jLc4jMW7WA post at 9:33pm: RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA MINUTES: BOARD CONSIDERED RATE RISE OF 25BP OR HOLDING STEADY AND RECONSIDERING AT LATER MEETING post at 9:34pm: RBA: Econ. Still Looks To Be On Narrow Path To Soft Landing - No Sign Yet Of Services Infl. Moderating, May Persist - Recent Data Suggested Infl. Risks Shifted To Upside - June Hike Would Boost Confidence In CPI Return To Target $AUDUSD #CPI #Inflation post at 9:35pm: RBA: Pause Case Based On Past Hikes Sharply Slowing Economy - Rate Hike Based On Inflation Taking Longer To Hit Target - Little Spare Capacity In Economy, Unemployment Very Low - Considerable Uncertainty On Household Spend, Household Stress $AUDUSD #CPI #Inflation
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- Posted: Jun 19, 2023 8:17pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 1,892