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Gold dips as U.S. debt talks resume, FOMC minutes loom
Gold prices are weaker in midday U.S. trading Wednesday. Risk appetite up-ticked a bit today on reports the U.S. government debt-limit-extensions talks are set to resume, following a report Tuesday that the negotiations were at an impasse. Silver prices are lower. Trading today is more cautious ahead of this afternoon's release of the FOMC minutes. June gold was last down $2.50 at $1,972.10 and July silver was down $0.274 at $23.34. Risk aversion was keener earlier today after a report Tuesday afternoon said President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy have not made much progress on the U.S. debt-ceiling extension ... (full story)
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Thank you, Peter, and thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today. I confess I am not an expert on Santa Barbara County's diverse economy, beyond my abiding interest in the excellent wines you produce. But you will hear more about the regional outlook from the other two speakers and so I'll focus my remarks on a broader perspective of the U.S. economy and how the data is shaping my policy views.1 Let me cut to the chase—in my view, data since the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has not provided sufficient clarity as to what we should do with our policy rate at the next meeting. We still have some major data releases coming up in the next three weeks and I'll also be learning more about evolving credit conditions, both factors which will inform me on the best course of action. Between now and then, we need to maintain flexibility on the best decision to take in June. Starting with the economy, activity has slowed from its pace in the latter half of last year. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown at a modest rate last quarter, and different data available for the current quarter could be interpreted as suggesting growth is slowing or even accelerating a bit. Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the first three months of the year. The consensus of private sector forecasts tracked by the Blue Chip survey is for annualized growth of only a tenth of a percent or two above zero this quarter. By contrast, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow projection, based on a range of data, is for a 2.9 percent growth rate. Retail sales and industrial production rose in April, though those gains followed two months of declining or flat readings. At the same time, April was the second month non-manufacturing businesses expanded modestly, according to respondents of the Institute for Supply Management survey. Despite this slowing in activity from last year, we have a very tight labor market and high inflation. We also are at a period of higher-than-usual uncertainty about how credit conditions are evolving in response to the recent bank failures and stress among some other mid-size banks. Let me talk about each of these three key issues and then conclude with how I see these factors playing into my June policy decision. post at 12:09pm: Waller Does Not Expect Data in Next Couple of Months to Make It Clear Terminal Interest Rate Has Been Reached Waller Says He Does Not Support Stopping Rate Hikes Unless There is Clear Evidence Inflation is Moving Down to 2% Target post at 12:10pm: Waller Says He’s Concerned About Lack of Progress on Inflation Waller Says He’s Concerned Inflation Won’t Come Down Much Unless Growth of Average Hourly Wages Nears 3% Waller: Says April PCE Inflation, May CPI Data Will Be ‘Critical’ post at 12:10pm: *Fed’s Waller: Don’t Halt Hikes Until It’s Clear Inflation is Tamed *Fed’s Waller: Incoming Inflation Data Key for June Rate Call post at 12:11pm: FED'S WALLER: PRUDENT RISK MANAGEMENT MAY SUGGEST SKIPPING A HIKE IN JUNE, AND LEANING TOWARD A JULY HIKE DEPENDING ON INFLATION DATA AND IF BANKING CONDITIONS HAVEN'T TIGHTENED EXCESSIVELY.
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- Posted: May 24, 2023 12:26pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 339
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