Manufacturing and trade inventories and sales, November 2021

Prior was 70.6 • Expectations 65.9 vs 66.5 expected • Prior expectations were 68.3 • Current conditions 73.2 vs 73.3 expected • Prior current conditions were 74.2 • 1 year inflation 4.9% vs 4.8% prior • 5-10 year inflation 3.1% vs 2.9% tweet at 10:07am: MORE UMICH PRELIM JAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS TO SECOND LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE. ESCALATING INFLATION, DELTA AND OMICRON CITED #UMich #sentiment #economyUS: Consumer Sentiment falls to 68.8 in early January versus 70.0 expected, according to UoM According to the University of Michigan's (UoM) preliminary January US Consumer Sentiment survey, the Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 68.8 in January from 70.6 in December, below expectations for a 70.0 reading. Meanwhile, UoM's Current Conditions Index fell to 73.2 from 74.2 in December, a tad below expectations for a drop to 73.3. The Consumer Expectations Index fell to 65.9 from 68.3 last month, also below expectations for 66.5. Finally, one-year inflation expectations according to the survey rose to 4.9%, this highest since 2008, and five-year inflation expectations rose to 3.1%, the highest since the early 90s. The preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Index fell more than expected to 68.8 in January. There was no meaningful FX market reaction to the latest report. Market Reaction There was no meaningful FX market reaction to the latest UoM survey data.UMich Sentiment Slides In January As Inflation Expectations Hit 10-Year Highs After a small bounce in December - from decade lows - University of Michigan Sentiment was expected to slip back lower in preliminary January survey data, and it did... more than expected. Both current conditions and expectations fell in the flash January data, dragging the headline print down from 70.6 to 68.8 (below the 70.0 expectations)... chart Current Conditions are the worst since September 2011. Interestingly, buying conditions for houses rebounded in early January but for vehicles it crashed to a record low... chart Finally, and perhaps most notably, inflation expectations rose significantly in January, with medium-term expectations rising to 3.1% - the highest since January 2011... chart So, will The Fed's jawboning bring down inflation expectations?