Gold/USD

Although gold prices have been unable to break initial resistance above $4,200, one market strategist expects the worst of the selling pressure from the months-long correction may now be over. In his latest precious metals note, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said he believes the price action in the gold market is shifting from ...

Kelsey Berro, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, discussed the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, indicating that a rate hike in July is probably off the table and she expects the Fed to stay on hold for the year. Berro also says while the recent payrolls report suggests the labor market is stable, it's not going to ...

In her opening remarks in Sintra, Christine Lagarde reminded the audience that the conduct of monetary policy now takes place in a more volatile and less predictable environment, characterised by a larger number of and more diverse economic shocks. Faced with this uncertainty, the ECB president advocated for a communication style she referred to as ...

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle one of the biggest questions in markets right now: have central banks misread the macro backdrop? The duo breaks down why inflation may be falling faster than policymakers expect, whether investors are once again wrong on oil, and what the latest developments in the Middle East mean for energy ...

FED'S WALLER: FED POLICYMAKERS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN COMMITTED TO INFLATION TARGET, IT IS A ‘CREDIBLE PLEDGE’ Fed's Waller: The risks have flipped around, the labor market seems stabilized, and inflation has been taking off, which changes how you think about policy. Fed's Waller when asked about Warsh recommitting to the inflation target: He has never been anything but committed.

JPMorgan said demand for gold from key sectors would not be as strong as it had expected, limiting the rise in gold prices this year to $4 300/oz in the third quarter and $4 500/oz in the fourth quarter. The bank said the risks to its forecast skew to the downside, given possible early interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve if data were to come in ...

Thank you, Isabel, and thank you to the organizers for the invitation to be part of this discussion.1 As we get closer to the dinner hour, I will give you two thoughts to chew on about how monetary policy transmission has worked in the recent past and how that affects my view of appropriate actions when facing current challenges. The first of these is that initial conditions are crucial. To decide where policy should go, you need a clear sense of where you are starting from. By "initial conditions," I mean what is currently happening—not some average of experience in the past. This lesson was brought home to me during the rapid escalation of inflation in the United States following the pandemic. Based on past experience, a considerable share of the economic profession believed that the rapid tightening of financial conditions needed to bring down inflation would unavoidably cause a sharp increase in unemployment. And while this expectation was a good summary of what had happened in the past, in 2022, it was a poor predictor of what would happen from tightening policy because initial conditions at that time were so different. In particular, the combination of a negative labor supply shock along with a booming economy fueled by fiscal and monetary stimulus led to a situation in early 2022 where the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers was 2—a level never seen before. This initial condition for job vacancies was critical to understanding how tightening monetary policy would affect the labor market. Historically, changes in labor demand had minor Fed's Waller: Forward guidance can be a hindrance if it is too strong or rigid. Fed's Waller: Forward guidance also problematic when policymakers confront different economic outcomes all with a significant probability of occurring. Fed's Waller: When it works, forward guidance can speed the impact of monetary policy, as in late 2021. Fed's Waller does not comment on current economic policy outlook.

Latest PMI® survey data from S&P Global showed that the US service sector recorded a modest, but improved, rise in activity during June. The upturn was supported by a faster increase in new business, as firms responded to gradually stabilizing economic conditions. That said, growth remained historically muted and continued to weigh on employment levels at ...

The chart I am about to show rather attracted my attention over the weekend. After all we have been looking at the theme of weak Chinese house prices for some years now. For newer readers net exporters ( China, Germany and Japan) all tend to have weak domestic consumption. In China deficient domestic demand was such an issue they took a leaf out of the ...

Goldman's revised central-bank demand model, which lifted its estimated purchases to roughly 60 tonnes a month through 2026 from an earlier 29-tonne pace, gives the bullish case a firmer structural anchor even after the bank trimmed its year-end target by $500 in June. The dispersion across Wall Street, from BofA's more cautious $4,800 to JPMorgan's $6,000 ...