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One of my core beliefs as a portfolio manager is that we get paid to worry so investors don’t have to. Several weeks ago, Brad wrote about what was worrying investors and whether those issues were worth worrying about. He also acknowledged that there are some real concerns out there as well. I want to build on that idea and provide insight into how ...
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This report reviews vulnerabilities affecting the stability of the U.S. financial system related to valuation pressures, borrowing by businesses and households, financial-sector leverage, and funding risks. It also highlights several near-term risks that, if realized, could interact with these vulnerabilities. A summary of the developments in the four broad categories of vulnerabilities since the October 2023 Financial Stability Report is as follows: Asset valuations. Valuations rose further to levels that were high relative to fundamentals across major asset classes. Equity prices grew faster than expected earnings, pushing the forward price-to-earnings ratio to the upper end of its historical distribution. Corporate bond spreads narrowed and currently stand at levels that are low relative to their long-run averages. Residential property prices remained high relative to fundamentals and prices continued to rise in recent months. Prices of commercial real estate (CRE) declined amid weak demand for office properties (see Section 1, Asset Valuations). 2. Borrowing by busine post: FED FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT: PERSISTENT INFLATION AND TIGHTER MONETARY POLICY REMAINS THE MOST CITED POTENTIAL RISKS TO THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM. post: FED FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT: NEARLY TWO-THIRDS OF RESPONDENTS MENTIONED POLICY UNCERTAINTY AS A RISK, SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN IN THE OCTOBER REPORT.