US Congressional Elections

The conventional wisdom in the media and among us "coastal elites" is that President Trump's speech on Wednesday night was an embarrassing flop, that the war in Iran was a political blunder of the first order, and that Republicans are heading for disaster in this fall's midterm elections. I'm going to take the under on all three - and not just because I'm so ornery, or because I think the media and the coastal elites have spent 10 years misinterpreting Donald Trump's rhetoric. I actually think the speech may have been more ...

Republicans on Saturday were close to clinching control of the U.S. House of Representatives, a critical element for President-elect Donald Trump to advance his agenda when he returns to the White House in January. With votes still being counted from the Nov. 5 general election, Republicans had won 213 seats in the 435-member House, according to Edison Research, which projected on Saturday night that Representative Dan Newhouse had enough votes to keep Republican control of Colorado's 3rd congressional district. Republicans need to ...

Gold prices have plunged following Donald Trump’s win in the 2024 presidential election, which has driven both the dollar and Treasury yields higher. Treasury yields surged on expectations that a second Trump administration may introduce policies, like tariffs, likely to spur inflation, potentially prompting the Fed to slow its rate-cutting pace. The Republicans have also secured a majority in the Senate and are on course to win the House of Representatives, suggesting a possible Republican sweep in 2024. This scenario would simplify ...

Donald Trump has been elected President again. TV networks called the race at around 5:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, and the AP called the race shortly after. A win in Wisconsin put him over the 270 electoral college vote threshold. The market is responding how we would have expected in the event of a Republican sweep—U.S. large-cap stocks, small-cap stock, and bond yields are all sharply higher. S&P 500 futures are up another +2.3% on top of yesterday’s +1.1% gain. Yesterday, all 11 sectors were higher, and breadth was the best ...

The U.S. election results will shift the economic landscape, particularly if the Republicans also manage to hold onto the House. However, there are still plenty of questions around the extent to which the campaign rhetoric translates into policy reality. The lean will certainly be to more tax relief, although the positive growth impact will be countered somewhat by broad trade tariffs and uncertainty, accompanied by a firmer U.S. dollar and higher bond yields. The latter are driven by bigger budget deficits, modestly higher inflation ...

The race to control the House is undecided, though Republicans are already expressing early optimism about securing a governing trifecta with their new Senate majority and freshly minted President-elect Donald Trump. “As more results come in it is clear that, as we have predicted all along, Republicans are poised to have unified government in the White House, Senate and House,” Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said Wednesday in a statement. That early confidence comes as Republicans need to win 12 more seats to maintain their ...

The U.S. dollar was little changed against other global currencies on Tuesday evening as voting began to wind down in the presidential election. The British pound and the euro were both down less than 0.1% against the greenback, as was the Mexican peso . The Australian dollar showed a slight gain against its U.S. counterpart. The foreign exchange market could be one of the first areas of the financial system to react as election results roll in. Currencies are more regularly traded during the overnight hours in the U.S. than domestic ...