Jackson Hole Symposium

Fed Chair Powell spoke on the “Economic Outlook and Framework Review” at Jackson Hole today. The key phrase in the economic outlook section was that “with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” This signals that a rate cut is squarely on the table for the September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that: “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation. When our ...

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s eagerly awaited speech at the central bank’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday has analysts saying an interest rate cut looks very likely in September. While he noted that tariffs are putting upward pressure on inflation, the balance of risks appears to have shifted toward a weakening economy. “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” Powell said. “Inflation had moved much closer ...

When Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday opened the door to cutting interest rates for the first time in nearly a year, he noted the tremors beginning to shake a main pillar of the U.S. economy: the labor market. Concerns about the pace of job growth were heightened earlier this month after government data showed a sharp slowdown in hiring in July, along with much weaker payroll gains in May and June than previously thought. The disappointing numbers were alarming enough for President Trump to question their accuracy and to ...

Fed Chair Powell spoke on the “Economic Outlook and Framework Review” at Jackson Hole today. The key phrase in the economic outlook section was that “with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” This signals that a rate cut is squarely on the table for the September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that: “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation. When our ...

Jerome Powell has had a change of heart. July 30th, he was saying that breakeven levels of employment are low and inflation is an issue. Two days ago, the FOMC Minutes said: “A majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks, while several participants viewed the two risks as roughly balanced, and a couple of participants considered downside risk to employment the more salient risk.” “Several participants noted concerns about elevated asset valuation pressures.” Today he decided that ...

Powell indicated that the Fed’s dual mandate goal is essentially in balance, saying the labor market remains close to maximum employment and that inflation has eased from post-pandemic highs, although it remain elevated. However, the Fed head also noted that “the balance of risks appears to be shifting,” with significant uncertainty in the economy as a result of higher tariffs, tighter immigration and a slowdown in the pace of growth in the labor market. “Over the longer run, changes in tax, spending, and regulatory policies may also ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday opened the door ever so slightly to lowering a key interest rate in the coming months but gave no hint on the timing of a move and suggested the central bank will proceed cautiously as it continues to evaluate the impact of tariffs and other policies on the economy. In a high-profile speech closely watched at the White House and on Wall Street, Powell said that there are risks of both rising unemployment and stubbornly higher inflation. Yet he suggested that with hiring sluggish, the job ...