XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread 56,737 replies
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DislikedAfter the ADP data came in way lower than expected on Wednesday, the risk in NFP seems to be in a miss.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I think a miss would produce a bigger move than a beat. The current market narrative is that the US had an economic slowdown, but 2020 will be better. If there's a beat, then it reinforces that narrative. A miss though might make traders think a recession is coming.Ignored
DislikedI think a miss would produce a bigger move than a beat. The current market narrative is that the US had an economic slowdown, but 2020 will be better. If there's a beat, then it reinforces that narrative. A miss though might make traders think a recession is coming.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Seems like the beat drove a pretty big move on Friday. I feel like the downside risks US / UK / China and others is kind of built in with the trade war continuing to drag out and Brexit lingering. I think we have more impacts possible with strong results that beat expectations.Ignored
Forecasts
Fed Funds Rate
After three consecutive rate cuts, the Fed has shifted their stance and are now on hold. There is no chance that the Fed is going to take action on rates.
FOMC Statement
This is where the focus should be. Fed speakers have recently carried the message that a material change in economic outlook could trigger further rate cuts. The statement is where we are likely to get the overall sentiment of the Fed, which has been unusually divisive throughout the past several meetings.
FOMC Economic Projections
It's widely expected that we will get revisions lower on unemployment rate's near term path. Any 2019 rate forecasts will need to be brought in line with reality, which is already expected. The next rate move is currently projected to be a hike in 2021. No changes are expected.
FOMC Press Conference
Powell is likely to emphasize data dependency for future policy changes. The Q&A session is where things are a little uncertain as there will undoubtedly be questions about US-China trade. Expect volatility, as always.
The arrow is pointing to the start of Powell's press conference, 30 mins after the release time of the other data.
As always, expect significant volatility across asset classes. Given that a rate cut is off the table, volatility will probably not be one directional. The rate statement is expected to trigger an initial move. Then, when Powell takes the mic, expect the Q&A session to provide additional volatility.
This meeting could be relatively unpredictable. I'd advise caution. Whipsaws seem like a very real possibility throughout the data/statement releases and presser.
Good luck fellow traders!
DislikedFOMC Meeting - December Preview Federal Funds Rate FOMC Statement FOMC Economic Projections FOMC Press Conference (30 minutes later) Forecasts Fed Funds Rate After three consecutive rate cuts, the Fed has shifted their stance and are now on hold. There is no chance that the Fed is going to take action on rates. FOMC Statement This...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Great write-up, thanks ET! It looks like tomorrow's FOMC meeting should be the least eventful in recent history.Ignored
Disliked...Recent Impact (gold, eur/usd, usd/jpy) The arrow is pointing to the start of Powell's press conference, 30 mins after the release time of the other data... Summary As always, expect significant volatility across asset classes. Given that a rate cut is off the table, volatility will probably not be one directional. The rate statement is expected to trigger an initial move. Then, when Powell takes the mic, expect the Q&A session to provide additional volatility. This meeting could be relatively unpredictable. I'd advise caution. Whipsaws seem like...Ignored
Disliked{quote} No debate here. Besides this meeting not expected to be filled with any surprises, recently all the meetings have come with uncertainty on top of a split Fed on what actions to take. Now that the Fed is on hold again, the impact will come off a bit. It's still a ver important high impact event. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thanks @ET ... for the recent impact ... ive never taken a deep study like yours in the past ... gotta pay more attention to these clues Good day allIgnored
Disliked{quote} No debate here. Besides this meeting not expected to be filled with any surprises, recently all the meetings have come with uncertainty on top of a split Fed on what actions to take. Now that the Fed is on hold again, the impact will come off a bit. It's still a ver important high impact event. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} ... Hi @ET, with the Fed Fund Rates remain unchanged as recent firgures from FOMC ... & the overall stock market seems like positive ... as my undertanding, GOLD may be in Range in short-term, isnt it? How are other perspectives?, i dont have much experiece interpreting news figuresIgnored
Forecasts
Recent impacts (gold, eur/usd, usd/jpy)
Last month ADP missed (67K vs 137K expected).
Last month this data had more impact than usual after the big miss. Traders can expect gold to move higher on a lower than expected number, accompanied by a weaker dollar. If the number beats market expectations, then gold should fall while the dollar moves higher.
ADP is never a great data release to trade because there's usually limited follow-through on any initial reaction. Traders quickly shift their attention to Friday's US employment data and ADP is quickly forgotten. It is however, important to be cognizant of the data release so that you can be aware of what's currently moving the markets. I'd expect the volatility related to the ADP to be over rather quickly.
Good luck out there!
DislikedUS ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - January Preview ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Forecasts According to Bloomberg, there's a very wide range of estimates. From 70K to about 225K. Within that range, most estimates fall between 130K and 190K. While the average estimate is 157K, 170K is the most popular forecast. Economists polled by Reuters are showing a range from 77K to 225K. Within that range more economists think 160K will be the outcome. Reuters is showing far more uncertainty about the...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hey ET..how are you..? Please help me for trading by giving Intraday points..Ignored