Geopolitical risks continue to fade for the oil market, with ICE Brent coming under further pressure yesterday, settling 1.2% lower. This should allow fundamentals to return as the key driver for the market. Unfortunately for the bulls, the fundamental outlook over the first half of this year is not overly constructive. The market is set to see a sizeable surplus, which should mean weakness for both the flat price and time spreads. How much weakness is seen, is largely dependent on what OPEC+ decide when they meet in early March. The balance sheet suggests that the current deal will need to be extended through until ... (full story)