We expect the Fed to stay on hold at next week’s FOMC meeting after three consecutive rate cuts. The last FOMC minutes made it clear that most participants judge that the current stance of monetary policy is now well-calibrated and that another cut would require the outlook to materially change. The Fed will therefore likely take a wait-and-see approach, evaluating the effects of monetary easing on incoming data. Since the October meeting, data has not changed the outlook materially. Payrolls have remained solid while ISM non-manufacturing has stabilised (although the November print was a small disappointment). On ... (full story)