The late summer inversion of the US Treasury yield curve raised concerns that the US economy might be heading towards a slowdown, or worse, in 2020. Investors should therefore be heartened to know that the US Treasury yield curve flipped back to a positive slope in mid-October. There is, however, a fly in the ointment. The public sector yield curve, which we measure by subtracting the rate on 3-month Treasury Bills from the yield on 10-year US Treasuries, isn’t the only, or even the best, yield curve available as an economic indicator. The shortfall with the public sector curve is that only the US government borrows ... (full story)