Stephen Gallagher stands out among Wall Street economists because he’s one of the few willing to go on the record to forecast a recession in 2020. Also because he’s not blaming it on tweets, Trump or tariffs. The chief U.S. economist for Societe Generale also stands out because he’s just won MarketWatch’s Forecaster of the Month contest, which we designed to recognize the most accurate U.S. economic forecasters. Gallagher’s recession story is a relatively simple one: U.S. recessions are typically preceded by an erosion in corporate profit margins, or profit per dollar of revenue. Costs generally rise near the end of ... (full story)