I’ve tried to instill in my children that uncertainty is a fact of life that should be embraced. Take the road less traveled. Push yourselves to learn new things, make new friends, and visit new places. It makes life more interesting. But in policy-making, persistent uncertainty is not as welcome as a new dinner guest or a long weekend in a new city. Much has been made in recent weeks about the correlation between inverted yield curves and recession and what it means for Fed policy—a valid historical reference point. Inverted yield curves occur when the yields of long-term bonds are driven lower than those of ... (full story)