On 14 August, the yield spread between two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds moved below zero for the first time since February 2006. Though it has since widened back to positive territory, the move was significant because such “inversions” of the yield curve – in which short-maturity yields exceed those for longer-maturity bonds – have preceded nearly all recessions dating back to the 1950s. The move has also, understandably, made investors more wary of the economic outlook. What’s behind the inversion – and are investors right to worry? Researchers still struggle to understand why the yield curve historically is ... (full story)