Last month we noted that commodity prices held up well in the face of the growing uncertainties surrounding the global economy. This shifted when US President Trump upped the ante in the trade war with China. Through July, spot iron ore (62%fe) fell 22% to US$98/t. Met coal, which was already under pressure due to weakening demand, fell 18% to US$158/t, while thermal coal declined 15% to US$64/t. As a result, we have adjusted our near term forecasts. To end-2019, we now expect iron ore to track sideways around US$100/t. Met and thermal coal are similarly expected to hold around US$150/t and US$65/t respectively. We ... (full story)