Most of China’s economic indicators were a little weaker in April, and this was prior to the increase in trade tensions with the United States in early May. The increase in rates on the second phase of US tariffs (from 10% to 25% on around US$200 billion worth of goods) and likely public hearings on the third and final phase are a negative for the manufacturing sector and the broader economy as a whole. The trade relationship remains highly uncertain (given that an agreement could still be reached) as is the domestic policy response, meaning that our economic growth forecasts are unchanged for now – at 6.25% this ... (full story)