Although Fed officials continue to resist the notion that rates will shift either up or down in this year, I think the odds still favor a cut over a hike. To be sure, Fed officials remain optimistic, especially considering the economy did not fall off a cliff in the first half of 2019 as some feared after the financial turmoil of late last year. Incoming data, however, suggest that activity is slowing as expected. Ultimately, with inflation still quiescent, I don’t think it would take much additional slowing to prompt the Fed to ease policy a notch to help sustain the expansion. On the other side of the coin, low ... (full story)