The Fed has taken a decidedly more cautious stance since the start of the year. Pointing to various "cross-currents" - a reference to trade uncertainty, the recent government shutdown and financial market volatility, among other things - the central bank has signalled it's prepared to be patient when it comes to further tightening. We suspect there will be more of the same next week. Markets seem to have interpreted this as the Fed won't hike again this cycle. However there are a few reasons why we think a hike in the third quarter of this year remains likely. Firstly, while the economy will undoubtedly slow from ... (full story)