With long-term interest rates falling and short-term rates rising, there has been increasing talk of a possible yield-curve inversion and speculation about what an inversion might mean for the U.S. economy. The yield curve shows how the yields on government debt securities vary with time to maturity. A yield-curve inversion occurs when the return to holding soon-to-mature securities exceeds the return to holding securities that will mature later. We look specifically at the difference in yield between Treasuries maturing in one year and those maturing in 10 years. Using that definition, every U.S. recession during ... (full story)